Lagos Real Estate Briefing - 2026-03-31

Lagos Real Estate Briefing - March 31, 2026

Lagos’ property market is riding a wave of cautious confidence right now. Luxury values have tripled in barely a year, infrastructure mega-projects are finally moving from paper to pavement, and diaspora money keeps flowing in - but a wall of new high-end supply on the horizon means the window for easy gains may be narrowing. The mood? Bullish, but with one eye on the exit.

New Project Launches

-Nautica Rise towers breaking ground.Construction on the Nautica Rise residential towers kicked off in 2026. The project will ultimately comprise around 10 towers ranging from 20 to 50 floors, delivered progressively through 2033. The design leans into hospitality - think serviced apartments, short-stay rentals, and tourism-driven occupancy. It’s a bet on Lagos becoming a lifestyle destination, not just a business hub. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-Ilubirin waterfront nearing completion.The 27-hectare Ilubirin housing project on Lagos Island is set for completion this year, bringing nearly 3,000 residential units in 15- to 20-storey buildings. It’s one of the biggest waterfront mixed-use developments the city has seen. (Property Access)

-753 luxury apartments in the pipeline.Estate Intel data shows 753 apartments priced above $1 million are under construction across Lagos, concentrated on the B.A.G Stretch in Old Ikoyi, Eko Atlantic, Victoria Island, and Banana Island. Asking prices go up to $6 million. In the past 12 months alone, actual construction starts in this segment jumped 33%. (Estate Intel)

-Lagos State fast-tracking government housing.The state government is pushing hard on its affordable housing pipeline, targeting several schemes for completion in 2026: Sangotedo Phase II, Egan-Igando Clusters II and III, and Ibeshe Phase II. Housing Commissioner Moruf Akinderu-Fatai confirmed these are central to tackling the state’s estimated 3-million-unit deficit. (Nigeria Housing Market)

Foreign Buyer Policies

-No new restrictions - but know the rules.There are no major new foreign-buyer restrictions being discussed. The existing framework still applies: under the Land Use Act of 1978, you’re acquiring “rights of occupancy” rather than freehold title. Every transaction involving a foreigner needs the State Governor’s consent, and under the Lagos State Real Estate Regulatory Authority Law 2022, the maximum lease term for non-Nigerians is 25 years (including renewals). (The Africanvestor)

-The company route remains the workaround.A company registered in Nigeria - even one wholly owned by foreigners - can acquire land like a Nigerian citizen. This remains the most common structure for foreign investors looking to hold property long-term. (DLA Piper)

-New tax law in effect since January 2026.Nigeria’s consolidated Tax Act 2025 took effect on January 1, 2026. The details around property transactions are still being clarified, but industry experts warn that the tax market around real estate has shifted and recommend verifying current requirements with a local professional before closing. (The Africanvestor)

Market Trends & Pricing

-Luxury values have tripled.According to BusinessDay data, a portfolio of 10 investment properties in Lagos surged to ₦25.6 billion by February 2026, up from ₦9.3 billion in December 2024. That’s driven by both genuine demand and the naira’s devaluation (from roughly ₦460/$ in 2023 to over ₦1,600/$ by 2025), which has made real estate the go-to inflation hedge. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-Ikoyi leads price gains.Properties in Ikoyi recorded appreciation between 132% and 176%. Land in Ikeja GRA now goes for ₦1.5 million per square metre, up from ₦600,000/sqm in early 2024. Limited land availability in Ikoyi is driving a “redevelopment investment” trend - older structures being demolished for modern high-rises. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-Rents are surging.Banana Island duplex rents now range between ₦80 - 100 million per year. On the mainland, three-bedroom flats in Ikeja GRA have jumped to ₦15 million per year from ₦5 million just two years ago. Occupancy rates in well-built luxury properties sit at around 97%. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-Median prices across Lagos.The median housing price in Lagos in 2026 is approximately ₦230 million (about $148,000), while the average sits at around ₦326 million (roughly $210,000). Average prices are up about 15% across prime locations. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-A correction may be coming.Estate Intel analysts expect a price softening by 2026 - 2027 as the 753+ ultra-luxury units in the pipeline reach completion and compete against each other. The total pipeline of nearly 1,400 luxury units is expected by 2029. For now, though, it remains a seller’s market. (Estate Intel)

-Diaspora investors remain active.The naira’s stabilization around ₦1,400 - 1,500 per dollar has made Lagos real estate attractive as a wealth-preservation vehicle. Diaspora buyers are particularly active in the middle-income and deluxe segment ($40,000 - $400,000), though some participate in the million-dollar-plus space too. (The Africanvestor)

Infrastructure & Development News

-Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway in high gear.Following a $1.26 billion financing deal secured in December 2025 for Phase 1, Section 2 (Eleko in Lekki to Ode-Omi), construction is now accelerating on this 700km highway. Properties within 5km of the coastal road are seeing 25 - 40% appreciation spikes. The highway is transforming Ibeju-Lekki and Epe from suburban outposts into premium coastal hubs. (Guardian)

-Lekki Deep Sea Port now handling nearly half of regional cargo.The port accounts for roughly 47% of total cargo handled in the region and is Nigeria’s only fully automated port, capable of receiving the world’s largest container ships. Its operational maturity continues to drive property demand along the Lekki-Epe corridor. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-Fourth Mainland Bridge still pending.Despite repeated government promises, construction of the $2.5 billion, 38km bridge connecting Lagos Island to Ikorodu via Lekki has not yet started. The project would be Africa’s second-longest bridge and is planned as a Public-Private Partnership. It remains a “when, not if” situation - when it does break ground, expect significant uplift in Ikorodu and Lekki property values. (Guardian)

-Eko Atlantic taking shape.The 10km² reclaimed city continues to develop with a highway through the Lekki peninsula, a planned light rail, a bridge to the mainland, and a new airport envisaged within the next decade. It remains the primary competitor to Old Ikoyi for ultra-luxury positioning. (The Africa Report)

-Knight Frank sees a market in “recalibration.”The Knight Frank H2 2025 Lagos Market Update noted that real estate is now the third-largest contributor to Nigeria’s GDP at 13.36%, recording 3.50% real growth in Q3 2025. The MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund is offering long-term housing loans at 9.75%, and the Renewed Hope Housing Programme has about 2,000 units nearing completion in Ibeju-Lekki. (Guardian)

Notable Developer Activity

-MDS Properties- CEO David Mbah confirmed to BusinessDay that Ikoyi remains the “first port of call” for luxury real estate, with only Eko Atlantic offering comparable competition. The firm is active in the prime residential brokerage space. (Nigeria Housing Market)

-Landwey Investment- One of Lagos’ most prolific developers with 8 ongoing projects tracked by Estate Intel. Known for integrating smart technology and futurist design into residential developments across the Lekki-Epe axis. (Estate Intel)

-Mixta Africa- Continues to expand its large-scale master-planned communities. Projects like Lakowe Lakes Golf & Country Estate and Beechwood Park are landmarks in the Lekki-Epe corridor, integrating housing with infrastructure and lifestyle amenities. (Estate Intel)

-Grenadines Homes (Palton Morgan Holdings)- Known for luxury developments in Ikate and Lekki, maintaining a quality-over-volume approach. Part of the wider Palton Morgan Holdings group. (Estate Intel)

-Swindon Property- Managing Director Leye Taiwo noted that prime residential occupancy is at 97%, but warned that the current pipeline (representing about 30% of existing stock) will likely lead to price adjustments as buildings are delivered. (Estate Intel)

-Knight Frank Nigeria- Released their H2 2025 Lagos Market Update, with CEO Frank Okosun highlighting increasing market stability supported by easing inflation and infrastructure momentum. (Guardian)

*Sources consulted: Nigeria Housing Market, The Guardian Nigeria, Estate Intel, The Africanvestor, BusinessDay, Knight Frank Nigeria, DLA Piper, The Africa Report*