Dubai Retail Property Sales Reach 3.8 Billion Dirhams in H1 2026 as Second Quarter Volumes Fall 25 Percent

Dubai recorded 3.8 billion dirhams of retail property sales in the first half of 2026, a 177 percent increase on the same period of 2025, according to a Cavendish Maxwell market report published on 15 September. The headline number conceals a reversal inside the half: transactions between April and June ran 25 percent below the first quarter.

What changed

Sales volume rose alongside value, but not as fast. Dubai logged 850 retail sales transactions in the first half, up 56 percent year on year. Value grew more than three times as quickly as volume, which pushed the average transaction to 4.4 million dirhams, a 77 percent increase on the first half of 2025.

The quarterly split matters more than the half-year total. Cavendish Maxwell's Q1 figures, published on 30 June, put first quarter retail sales at 2.1 billion dirhams across 485 transactions, up 171 percent by value and 52 percent by volume, at an average price of 4.3 million dirhams. Set against the half-year figures, that leaves roughly 1.7 billion dirhams and about 365 transactions for the second quarter, and confirms the 25 percent quarter on quarter drop in deal count.

Off-plan stock dominates. Nearly 60 percent of first half transactions and almost 70 percent of total sales value were off-plan. Jumeirah Village Circle alone took 12 percent of off-plan retail sales, and together with Majan, Dubai South, Motor City and Sobha Central accounted for close to half of all off-plan activity. Completed stock traded on a different map: International City led with 22 percent, followed by Business Bay at 13.4 percent, Azizi Riviera at 10 percent, Jumeirah Lakes Towers at 7.4 percent and Jumeirah Village Circle at 6.8 percent.

Leasing moved the other way. More than 33,000 retail tenancy contracts were signed in the first half, but total contracts fell 6 percent year on year and new agreements dropped 26 percent. Renewals rose 1.5 percent. Average rents increased 4.5 percent year on year across the half, down from the 6.4 percent annual rise Cavendish Maxwell recorded in the first quarter. Occupancy at flagship malls held at around 98 percent.

The mechanism

These are registry figures, not survey estimates. Retail sales are captured through Dubai Land Department transaction records, and tenancy counts come from registered lease contracts, which is why the transaction and contract numbers are absolute rather than indexed.

A separate reading of the same registry supports the sales figures. W Capital Real Estate Brokerage, analysing Dubai Land Department data in a report released on 22 July, put total Dubai commercial property sales for the first half at 19.5 billion dirhams across 3,415 deals, a 183 percent rise on the 6.9 billion dirhams recorded in the first half of 2025. Within that total, W Capital counted 3.7 billion dirhams of retail across 846 transactions, almost exactly matching Cavendish Maxwell's retail count. Offices took the remaining 15.8 billion dirhams, or 81 percent of commercial sales value, with Business Bay alone accounting for 8 billion dirhams across 814 office deals.

Two independent houses reading the same registry and arriving at 846 and 850 retail transactions is a useful check. The growth rate is real, and it is concentrated in off-plan.

What it means for a foreign buyer

The entry price has moved. An average retail unit changed hands at 4.4 million dirhams in the first half, 77 percent above the first half of 2025. A buyer underwriting a Dubai retail unit on 2025 comparables is working from stale numbers.

The risk profile has shifted too. With close to 70 percent of sales value in off-plan units, most capital going into Dubai retail right now is buying a construction timeline rather than a rent roll. That converts the decision from a yield question into a delivery question, and the relevant checks are the developer's completion record, the escrow arrangement and the handover date in the sale and purchase agreement, not the projected footfall.

The leasing data is the part worth sitting with. Occupancy near 98 percent in flagship malls alongside a 26 percent fall in new lease agreements describes a two-speed market: prime centres are full, while newer community retail is finding it harder to sign first-time tenants. An off-plan unit in a district with heavy incoming supply, and several of the leading off-plan districts are exactly that, faces a letting market that is decelerating even as purchase prices rise. Rent growth halving from 6.4 percent to 4.5 percent within two quarters is the early signal.

Context

Foreign buyers can own retail units outright in Dubai's designated freehold areas on the same basis as residential property, and several of the districts leading this data, Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay and Jumeirah Lakes Towers among them, sit inside those zones. Dubai's commercial market has been running well ahead of the residential market on growth rates through 2026, which is a reversal of the pattern most foreign investors know the emirate for.

For the mechanics of buying off-plan in Dubai and checking a developer before funds move, see Dubai Off-Plan Property: How to Verify a Developer Before You Wire Money. The registration process that records these transactions changed this month, covered in Dubai Land Department Launches Initial Registration Platform. For how the districts named above compare on foreign buyer activity, see Downtown vs Marina vs Palm Jumeirah vs Business Bay vs JVC.

Sources

- Dubai retail property sales surge 177% to Dh3.8 billion in H1 2026, Khaleej Times, 15 September 2026

- Dubai retail property sales values soar 171% year-on-year to AED 2.1bln in Q1 2026, Cavendish Maxwell press release via Zawya, 30 June 2026

- Dubai commercial property sales jump 183pc in H1, says report, Gulf Daily News, 22 July 2026