Apr 23, 2026Global

New Real Estate Development Growth by Country — April 2026

New residential development is accelerating in markets that most Western investors have barely looked at, while some of the world's most-watched property destinations are showing signs of contraction or moderation. This ranking tracks new residential construction starts, project launches, building permits, and housing supply growth by country - giving foreign investors a data-grounded view of where development pipelines are expanding fastest. The numbers draw on official statistics, industry reports, and property research firms covering the period from late 2024 through early 2026.

Ranked: New Residential Development Growth by Country

|------|---------|--------|-------------|--------|

| 3 | 🇲🇾 Malaysia | +32.5% | Residential construction starts (YoY) | Q1 2025 |

| 4 | 🇬🇪 Georgia | +24.0% | Real estate market transaction volume (YoY) | Q1 2026 |

| 7 | 🇹🇭 Thailand | +16.7% | Total construction investment (YoY) | Q1 2025 |

| 10 | 🇰🇪 Kenya | +7.5% | Construction market growth forecast | 2026 |

| 11 | 🇮🇳 India | +6.6% | Residential construction market CAGR | 2025 - 2031 |

| 12 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia (Bali) | +6.0% | New development growth estimate | 2026 |

| 13 | 🇯🇵 Japan (Fukuoka) | +5.5% | National housing starts recovery (projected) | FY2026 |

| 14 | 🇳🇬 Nigeria | +5.3% | Construction industry output growth | 2025 |

Analysis

Bektu Markets: Where the Numbers Stand Out

Among Bektu's core focus markets, Vietnam leads the entire ranking by a substantial margin. More than 128,000 new housing units were launched in 2025, up 88% from the prior year, according to data compiled from multiple sources including VietnamNet and Avison Young. The recovery is broad-based - northern provinces, satellite cities around Hanoi, and a cautious rebound in Ho Chi Minh City all contributed. Social housing output also exceeded plan targets, with over 102,000 units completed in 2025. Vietnam's performance reflects a legal and regulatory environment that actively unlocked stalled projects after years of dysfunction.

Nigeria and Kenya both appear in the bottom half of the table, though for different reasons. Nigeria's construction sector is expanding - 5.3% output growth in 2025 - but the headline figure undersells a severe structural mismatch. Housing demand is growing at around 8% annually while supply growth lags significantly behind. The Renewed Hope Cities and Estates Programme is targeting 20,000 units per year, but financing constraints and limited construction capacity remain real bottlenecks. Kenya's situation is broadly similar: a 2021 - 2025 CAGR of 11.2% in the construction sector suggests genuine momentum, but the government's 200,000-homes-per-year target under the affordable housing initiative has fallen dramatically short, with around 1,200 units completed through end of 2024. The 7.5% growth forecast for 2026 represents an acceleration, not a continuation of stagnation. Albania rounds out the Bektu markets in this ranking with 18% residential property price growth in 2025, propelled by tourism-driven demand in Tirana and along the Albanian Riviera. The opening of Vlora International Airport for commercial flights in 2026 is expected to add further supply pressure in coastal areas.

Notable Movers

Georgia - the Caucasus nation, not the US state - posted a 24% jump in Tbilisi's real estate market volume in Q1 2026, reaching a record $941 million in that quarter alone. Transaction counts were up 19% year-over-year. This is not a new trend: Tbilisi has been on a sustained appreciation run since 2020, with new-build prices up roughly 57% over that span. The driver is a mix of foreign buyer interest, internal migration to the capital, and a construction pipeline that is expanding but struggling to keep pace with demand in central districts.

Malaysia's Q1 2025 residential construction starts surged 32.5% compared to the same period a year earlier. The full nine-month figure for 2025 tells a more complicated story - down 12.1% - suggesting a sharp deceleration in Q2 and Q3. Developers likely front-loaded activity early in the year before tightening conditions hit. The longer-term pipeline remains elevated, with incoming supply more than 200% higher than 2022 levels, which may translate to supply pressure in 2026 - 2027 completions. Singapore's 72.7% jump in new private residential launches reflects aggressive restocking after years of cautious supply management by authorities. Private home completions are forecast to rise from roughly 5,200 units in 2025 to 7,000 in 2026. Taiwan stands out for the only contraction in the table: residential construction licenses fell 2.6% in the first nine months of 2025, and property transactions hit an eight-year low over the same period. Cooling measures, elevated prices relative to incomes, and weakened buyer confidence all contributed.

What Is Driving the Numbers

Government policy is the dominant variable across the top performers. Vietnam's 2024 legal reforms cleared the backlog of stalled projects that had frozen the market for two years. Kazakhstan's housing sector has now exceeded its commissioning targets three years in a row, with 20.1 million square meters delivered in 2025 against a planned 19.2 million - a 15% construction surge partly attributed to state-backed affordable housing programmes. The Philippines' 4PH social housing initiative is targeting one million units annually, sustaining residential permit activity even as infrastructure delays and foreign investment softness create headwinds in commercial segments.

Foreign investment and tourism are the engines in Albania and Georgia. In both markets, the buyer pool has expanded significantly beyond domestic demand. Bali remains a globally recognized short-term rental market, but the 2025 data reflects a market that intentionally slowed construction to absorb earlier oversupply - hence the conservative 6% new development estimate for 2026. Japan presents a different dynamic: the national housing starts figure is projected to recover by 5.5% in FY2026 after a 9.8% decline in FY2025, with Fukuoka standing out within that national context for land value appreciation of 9% year-over-year. Record input costs - construction materials and labor running 25 - 29% above 2021 levels - are the primary constraint on faster growth. Australia is rebuilding commencement volumes after a post-pandemic slump, but remains well below the 240,000 annual starts needed to meet the government's 1.2 million homes in five years target.

Sources

- GlobeNewswire - Nigeria Construction Industry Report 2025 (February 2026)

- GlobeNewswire - Kenya Construction Industry Report 2026 (February 2026)

- VietnamNet - Real demand to lead Vietnam's housing market in 2026 (December 2025)

- Avison Young - Quarterly Report of Vietnam Real Estate Q3 2025 (October 2025)

- BaliVillaRealty - Bali Real Estate Trends 2026

- RICE (Research Institute of Construction and Economy) - Japan Housing Starts Forecast, FY2025 - 2026

- Investropa - Albania Real Estate Market Analysis 2026

- Qazinform - Kazakhstan commissioned above 20 mln sq m of housing in 2025 (January 2026)

- Australian Bureau of Statistics - Building Activity, Australia, December 2025

- HIA Australia - Housing starts rise but still below target (January 2026)

- Pravda Georgia - Tbilisi real estate market grew 24% in Q1 2026 (April 2026)

- Global Property Guide - Taiwan Residential Property Market Analysis 2025

- 99.co Singapore - Singapore's housing market 2025 review and 2026 outlook

- Radar.ph - What 2025 revealed about Philippine real estate (2026)

- Mordor Intelligence - India Residential Construction Market Size 2026 - 2031

- Malay Mail - Residential construction in Malaysia jumps 32.5% in Q1 2025 (May 2025)

- Nation Thailand - Thailand's Property Market 2025 (2025)

Bektu is a platform where foreign investors can verify legitimate real estate developers operating in these markets. If you're researching development activity in any of the countries above, Bektu's developer registry is a starting point for due diligence.

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