Bali Real Estate Briefing

Bali Real Estate Briefing - May 1, 2026

Bali's residential property market is moving through what most analysts now describe as a consolidation phase rather than the boom cycle of 2023 and 2024. Median sold prices have flattened around $299,000 according to Q3 2025 data, with rental occupancy peaking at 64.7% in July of last year. The story this week is regulation as much as construction, with Perda 4 of 2026 reshaping zoning enforcement, the March 31 short-term rental compliance deadline now in active enforcement, and BKPM Regulation 5/2025 lowering the paid-up capital threshold for foreign-owned PT PMA companies. Several legit real estate developers continue building out projects timed for 2026 completions across Canggu, Pererenan, Ubud, and Uluwatu, while the planned North Bali International Airport remains stuck in pre-construction. Foreign buyer interest persists, but the legal frameworks around it have grown stricter in ways that materially change how new entrants need to approach the market. What follows is a breakdown of the week's key data points, organized by topic.

New Project Launches

- More than 35 residential projects are scheduled for delivery during 2026 across Bali, with starting prices in the off-plan segment from around $109,000 and unit sizes from 40 sqm. Serenity Estates in Ubud (Gianyar) is targeting Q1 completion, while Elysium in Badung is slated for Q4. OXO The Residences plans 40 villas priced from IDR 7.5 billion (roughly $500,000) and is aiming for a late-2026 opening.

- The Canggu corridor accounted for 33.5% of all Bali residential sales by volume in Q3 2025, with median asking prices for freehold-equivalent villas near $471,000. New off-plan villa stock continues to enter the Pererenan submarket, where projects like Pererenan Garden Villas (five three-bedroom units) and an off-plan development branded as one of the area's most active pipelines are being marketed by legit real estate developers with delivery in 2026 and 2027.

- Uluwatu and Bingin lead the island in average daily rates, growing at 13% year on year, and one-bedroom units in the area are running at 57% occupancy according to current operator data. Land prices on the Bukit are roughly 40% below comparable Canggu pricing, which is drawing both villa and branded residence stock toward the cliff zones near Suluban.

- Mirah Investment & Development has reported more than 780 units under construction across its Bali portfolio, while project pipeline data points to an additional 530,000 sqm of residential and commercial space scheduled for delivery by the end of 2026. Lovina in north Bali is being repositioned through public-sector road, drainage, and beach restoration work intended to attract boutique villa and eco-resort projects.

- Ubud, Sanur, and Nusa Dua continue to function as more stable yield markets, with lower volatility than Canggu but slightly lower yields. Pricing in pink zone tourism land in Canggu remains in the IDR 9 to 14 million per sqm range (roughly $530 to $825), while development-ready land around Uluwatu sits at IDR 5 to 8 million per sqm ($295 to $470).

Foreign Buyer Policies

- Foreigners cannot hold Hak Milik freehold titles in Indonesia. Legal access to residential property continues to run through three structures: Hak Pakai (right to use, 30+20+30 year terms with a maximum total tenure of around 80 years), Hak Sewa long-term leases typically running 25 to 30 years with renewal options, and PT PMA company structures that hold HGB (right to build) or Hak Pakai titles.

- Hak Pakai registration in a foreign individual's name requires a valid KITAS, KITAP, or Second Home Visa, plus minimum property values that vary by region. Bali's threshold sits at IDR 2 to 5 billion depending on location, while Jakarta requires IDR 5 billion for apartments and IDR 10 billion for landed houses. Registration goes through a licensed PPAT notary and the National Land Agency (BPN).

- BKPM Regulation 5/2025 reduced the paid-up capital requirement at PT PMA incorporation to IDR 2.5 billion, down from IDR 10 billion previously, although the total investment plan must still exceed IDR 10 billion over a 3 to 5 year horizon. Setup typically takes 4 to 8 weeks and costs in the range of $3,000 to $5,000 in legal and notary fees.

- Government Regulation 28 of 2025 overhauled Indonesia's business licensing regime, pushing licensing fully onto digital infrastructure and tightening transparency requirements. Industry analysis from Seven Stones Indonesia and others now treats PT PMA as the most defensible vehicle for foreign property holding, especially where short-term rental income is part of the strategy.

- Perda 4 of 2026, signed by Governor I Wayan Koster on February 24 of this year, makes nominee arrangements expressly illegal in Bali and applies penalties to both the foreign beneficiary and the local nominee. Indonesian prosecutors have begun treating these arrangements as potential criminal fraud, and the regulation also introduces sharper enforcement on land conversion violations across the green and pink zoning categories.

Market Trends and Pricing

- Bali registered 6,948,754 direct foreign arrivals in 2025, up 9.72% from 2024. The Bali tourism authority is now targeting 6.63 million international arrivals for 2026, a deliberate pullback from last year's 7.05 million as the local government emphasizes higher-spend visitors over volume.

- Net rental yields on short-term let villas are typically reported in the 7 to 12% range for well-positioned, professionally managed assets, with some premium Uluwatu and Pererenan stock achieving 10 to 18% gross during peak operating windows. Capital appreciation through construction phases has been quoted at 20 to 25%, although second-half 2025 data showed that gain compressing as supply caught up with demand.

- Rental occupancy peaked at 64.7% in July 2025 and outperformed 2024 across every monthly data point. The Bali property market has now bifurcated into two tiers, with verified properties operated by legit real estate developers maintaining occupancy and rate while generic, lower-spec villa stock is seeing rate compression.

- Chinese, South Korean, and Japanese arrivals are growing at 18 to 20% per year, broadening the demand base beyond the traditional Australian and European segments. This is reflected in unit mix decisions across new developments, with more two-bedroom and family-sized layouts entering the pipeline.

- Comparison data still places Bali villa yields above Phuket and well above Jakarta on a gross basis, although Jakarta condominium product offers materially lower volatility. Pricing on entry-level off-plan villas in Pererenan now sits in the $150,000 to $250,000 range, while Canggu Berawa pricing has stabilized in the upper-$400,000s.

Infrastructure

- Construction on the North Bali International Airport in Buleleng has not yet started as of March 2026. The project, run by PT BIBU Panji Sakti at an estimated $3 billion (IDR 45 trillion), is in pre-construction with permitting (the IPL location permit) and financing still in progress. Minister Erick Thohir has indicated that ground-breaking must begin in 2027 to support a first-runway operational target in 2027 to 2028.

- The Gilimanuk-Mengwi toll road, intended to cut west-to-south travel from 5 to 7 hours down to 1.5 to 2 hours across 96.84 km through Jembrana, Tabanan, and Badung, was excluded from Indonesia's National Strategic Project (PSN) list for 2025. Governor Koster has stated the project will continue regardless, with completion now realistically targeted for 2027 to 2028.

- A separate Gatot Subroto Barat to Canggu connector linking Kerobokan with Canggu and the Mengwi bus station moved through feasibility in 2025 and is expected to enter land acquisition and early construction in 2026. Underground road concepts for central Canggu have also been floated as a response to chronic traffic congestion in the area.

- Ngurah Rai International Airport remains Bali's only international gateway and continues to operate near capacity. The North Bali project is being framed primarily as relief for Ngurah Rai rather than as a competitor, with eventual capacity targeted at up to 50 million passengers per year once full build-out is complete.

- New island-wide rules effective April 2026 prohibit organic waste from major landfills like Suwung and require source-level waste sorting from all commercial villa operators. The Bali Kerthi Compliance program, launched March 31, 2026, is auditing accommodation licensing across the island through December.

Developer Activity

- National-scale Indonesian developers including Sinar Mas Land, Ciputra Group, Agung Sedayu Group, Lippo Group, and PP Properti continue to operate primarily outside Bali, with most current activity concentrated in Greater Jakarta, Surabaya, and the new capital area of IKN Nusantara. Their Bali exposure remains limited compared to specialist island developers.

- On the resort and hospitality side, Ayana Estates, Karma Group, Trans Property (operator of The Trans Resort Bali in Seminyak Kerobokan), and Alila Villas remain active across Jimbaran, Uluwatu, and the south coast. Indochine Developments and other boutique foreign-led operators continue to add stock in Canggu and Pererenan, although project-level disclosure varies widely.

- Mirah Investment & Development reports 780 plus units under construction, making it one of the larger volume legit real estate developers operating exclusively on the island. Developer track record is now a frequent point of due diligence for foreign buyers, particularly in light of stalled or delayed off-plan projects from earlier cycles.

- Verifying a legit real estate developer track record in Bali typically involves checking Akta Pendirian and PT documentation, IMB or PBG building permits, SLF certificates of function, and any prior delivered project history. Industry guidance has increasingly converged on the view that foreign buyers should rely on registered counsel rather than agent-side documentation alone.

- Foreign capital continues to flow primarily into off-plan villa stock and branded residences operated under hospitality flags. The shift toward stricter enforcement has begun to favor developers with established compliance and licensing practices, while smaller operators without that infrastructure are facing increased scrutiny.

Closing

This week's signal across Bali is regulatory rather than transactional. Perda 4 of 2026 has hardened the rules around nominee structures, the short-term rental compliance window has now closed, and PT PMA setup has become both cheaper at incorporation and more administratively transparent under PP 28 of 2025. New supply continues to come online across Canggu, Pererenan, Ubud, and Uluwatu, but the gap between professionally operated villa stock and generic supply is widening in occupancy and rate. For foreign buyers, the path through Hak Pakai, Hak Sewa, or PT PMA is clearer than it has been in years, while informal workarounds are now actively prosecuted. Readers can verify the documentation, project history, and compliance status of legit real estate developers through Bektu's transparency platform before committing to any off-plan or completed project.